Bitcoin Price Eyes $100K as Fidelity’s Timmer Flips From His ‘Year Off’ Call
Key Takeaways
Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer says a break above $80,000 confirms a bitcoin double bottom aimed at $100,000.Bitcoin’s lows of $60,033 and $57,742 in 2026 undercut the $65,000 support Timmer flagged in December.Kalshi traders give bitcoin a 39% chance of topping $100,000 in 2026, down from 41% a day earlier.
December 2025: ‘A Year Off’
Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro, went into 2026 being extremely cautious, stating the following:
[Bitcoin] may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time.”
Days later, he claimed that 2026 could be “bitcoin’s year off”, since crypto winters historically lasted about a year. At the time, he placed support for the asset in the $65,000 to $75,000 range.
The first half of that call aged well, but the support band didn’t as bitcoin fell to $60,000 in early February and to $57,800 in late June, well below the floor he had flagged.
Nine months later, his tone flipped 180 degrees after bitcoin broke $80K, with Timmer adding:
I’m sensing that a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway.”
September 25: The $100K Chart
Late Friday, Timmer posted a weekly chart with a one-line thesis: “Bitcoin is looking particularly interesting here as it challenges key resistance at $80k. If it breaks, it will confirm a double bottom targeting $100k.”
The chart, built on data through Sept. 20, labels two troughs at $60,033 and $57,742. A horizontal line runs across the $80,554 level, with the May high at $82,807 and the latest swing at $82,266 pressing against it. The all-time high of $126,251 sits at the top left.
Looking At The Math
The simple answer is that it does, with there even being some room to spare. A double bottom’s textbook target adds the depth of the pattern to the breakout level. From the $57,742 low to the $80,554 line is $22,812, which projects to roughly $103,400. Measured from the $82,807 May high instead, the target stretches to about $107,900. Timmer’s $100,000 is the conservative version.
Bitcoin’s price is already testing the line, given the asset closed the week of Sept. 14 at $81,178 and is trading near $84,000 as of today. A weekly close there on Sunday would be the highest since the week of Jan. 19, when bitcoin finished at $86,670.
Timmer isn’t alone at that line as Bitcoin.com News reported this week that PlanB’s October path to $100K also depends on bitcoin holding above $80,500.
What Traders Are Actually Paying For
Prediction markets, however, are less excited and Kalshi’s 2026 bitcoin market prices a move above $100,000 this year at 39 cents, down from 41 cents a day earlier and below 46%. The $110,000 contract trades at 20 cents.
That said, short-term bets have cooled down the most with Kalshi’s September contract on bitcoin topping $87,500 falling to 22 cents from 35 cents in a span of the last 24 hours.
That said, spot demand seems to be holding up better. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) took in $134 million on Sept. 25, their seventh straight day of inflows, led by Blackrock’s IBIT. The coming few weeks will therefore be interesting to watch.
